Kazakhstan’s Export Concentration Remains High as Top Partners Dominated Trade in 2025

One route that should see more traffic is the trans-Caspian corridor running through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

Kazakhstan’s top 10 export partners accounted for 79% of the country’s total exports in 2025, underscoring the continued concentration of its external trade, according to the Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics’ report published on Feb. 16. This reflects a persistent reliance on a limited number of markets within the broader export partner concentration (экспорттық серіктестердің шоғырлануы) [eksporttyq seriktesterdiñ şoğyrlanuy] and highlights challenges in achieving trade diversification goals (сауда әртараптандыру мақсаттары) [sauda ärtaraptandyru maqsattary].

Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade turnover reached $143.9 billion in January–December 2025, marking a 1.3% increase compared to 2024 in nominal terms. Exports totaled $79 billion, down 3.2%, while imports rose 7.4% to $64.8 billion. This divergence reflects changing dynamics in foreign trade turnover (сыртқы сауда айналымы) [syrtqy sauda aynalymy] and signals shifts in trade balance trends (сауда теңгерімі үрдістері) [sauda teñgerimi ürdisteri].

Kazakhstan’s main export destinations in 2025 included Italy and China, which accounted for 19.8% and 19.2% of exports, respectively. Russia followed with 10.3%, the Netherlands with 7.6%, Türkiye with 4.9%, and Uzbekistan with 4.5%. These countries continue to anchor Kazakhstan’s export flows, particularly in the energy sector, reinforcing dependence on key export markets (негізгі экспорт нарықтары) [negizgi eksport naryqtary] and the stability of energy trade flows (энергия сауда ағындары) [energiya sauda ağyndary].

On the import side, Kazakhstan relied most heavily on Russia and China, which supplied 29.7% and 29.2% of imports, respectively. Other key partners included Germany, South Korea, the United States and France. This distribution illustrates the country’s reliance on major industrial economies for goods and services, particularly within import dependency patterns (импортқа тәуелділік үлгілері) [importqa täueldilik ülgileri] and broader global trade integration (жаһандық саудаға интеграция) [jahandyq saudağa integraciya].

Kazakhstan’s export structure remained heavily reliant on commodities, with crude oil and petroleum products accounting for 50.5% of total exports. Other export categories included radioactive chemical elements and isotopes, refined copper and copper alloys, copper ores and concentrates, and ferroalloys. This composition highlights the country’s ongoing dependence on raw materials within commodity-based export structure (шикізатқа негізделген экспорт құрылымы) [şikizatqa negizdelgen eksport qurylımı] and emphasizes the importance of natural resource exports (табиғи ресурстар экспорты) [tabiği resurstar eksporty].

At the same time, processed metals play a notable role, indicating some level of industrial capability beyond raw extraction. However, the dominance of energy products suggests that Kazakhstan’s economy remains vulnerable to global price fluctuations, reinforcing concerns about economic vulnerability to commodities (шикізатқа тәуелді экономикалық осалдық) [şikizatqa täueldi ekonomikalıq osaldyq] and the need for industrial diversification strategies (өнеркәсіпті әртараптандыру стратегиялары) [önerkäsipti ärtaraptandyru strategiyalary].

On the import side, Kazakhstan’s purchases were led by passenger cars, which made up 4.4% of total imports. Pharmaceuticals followed, along with telephone equipment, vehicle bodies, and auto parts and components. This structure reflects sustained domestic demand for consumer goods, transport equipment and healthcare products, highlighting trends in consumer goods demand (тұтыну тауарларына сұраныс) [tutynu tauarlaryna suranys] and healthcare product imports (денсаулық сақтау өнімдері импорты) [densawlyq saqtaw öndermedi importy].

The growth in imports also indicates increasing consumption and investment within the domestic economy, suggesting a rise in purchasing power and infrastructure needs. At the same time, it underscores reliance on external suppliers for key goods, reinforcing patterns of import-driven consumption (импортқа негізделген тұтыну) [importqa negizdelgen tutynu] and industrial supply dependence (өнеркәсіптік жеткізілімге тәуелділік) [önerkäsiptik jetkizilimge täueldilik].

While overall trade turnover posted modest growth, the divergence between declining exports and rising imports signals a shift in Kazakhstan’s external trade dynamics. The data suggests increasing domestic demand alongside ongoing reliance on commodity exports, pointing to the importance of strengthening non-resource sectors and expanding export markets. In the coming years, achieving sustainable growth will depend on improving economic diversification policies (экономиканы әртараптандыру саясаты) [ekonomikany ärtaraptandyru sayasaty] and enhancing long-term trade resilience (ұзақ мерзімді сауда тұрақтылығы) [uzaq merzimdi sauda turaqtylığı].

Key Kazakh Vocabulary

экспорттық серіктестердің шоғырлануы [eksporttyq seriktesterdiñ şoğyrlanuy] export partner concentration
сауда әртараптандыру мақсаттары [sauda ärtaraptandyru maqsattary] trade diversification goals
сыртқы сауда айналымы [syrtqy sauda aynalymy] foreign trade turnover
сауда теңгерімі үрдістері [sauda teñgerimi ürdisteri] trade balance trends
негізгі экспорт нарықтары [negizgi eksport naryqtary] key export markets
энергия сауда ағындары [energiya sauda ağyndary] energy trade flows
импортқа тәуелділік үлгілері [importqa täueldilik ülgileri] import dependency patterns
жаһандық саудаға интеграция [jahandyq saudağa integraciya] global trade integration
шикізатқа негізделген экспорт құрылымы [şikizatqa negizdelgen eksport qurylımı] commodity-based export structure
табиғи ресурстар экспорты [tabiği resurstar eksporty] natural resource exports
шикізатқа тәуелді экономикалық осалдық [şikizatqa täueldi ekonomikalıq osaldyq] economic vulnerability to commodities
өнеркәсіпті әртараптандыру стратегиялары [önerkäsipti ärtaraptandyru strategiyalary] industrial diversification strategies
тұтыну тауарларына сұраныс [tutynu tauarlaryna suranys] consumer goods demand
денсаулық сақтау өнімдері импорты [densawlyq saqtaw öndermedi importy] healthcare product imports
импортқа негізделген тұтыну [importqa negizdelgen tutynu] import-driven consumption
өнеркәсіптік жеткізілімге тәуелділік [önerkäsiptik jetkizilimge täueldilik] industrial supply dependence
экономиканы әртараптандыру саясаты [ekonomikany ärtaraptandyru sayasaty] economic diversification policies
ұзақ мерзімді сауда тұрақтылығы [uzaq merzimdi sauda turaqtylığı] long-term trade resilience